How forestland size affects household profits from timber harvests: A case-study in China’s Southern collective forest area

To improve the economies of scale in forest management and reduce the fragmentation of forestland, the Chinese central government has implemented a collective forest tenure supplementary reform since 2008. This has included a series of policies for motivating transfer of forestlands use rights among households in the country’s Southern Collective Forest Area (SCFA). However, to date there is little evidence that large-scale forest owners can earn more profits from timber harvests than small-scale forest owners in the SCFA. Using data collected from household surveys in the three of the SCFA’s provinces in 2016, this paper examines the return to scale of forestland ownership for timber harvests in this region, and how the scale of forestland ownership affects households’ profits from timber harvests. The results show a constant return to scale in timber harvests in the case provinces in China’s SCFA, that forestland area makes the most important contribution to the output of timber harvests, and that fragmentation of forestland results in lower profits from timber harvests. It appears that a moderate scale of forestland ownership should be identified for increasing the profits from timber harvests. With the rapid urbanization throughout China, an increase in off-farm employment among rural household members has a negative impact on timber harvests in the region. We argue that policymakers should realize the importance of encouraging the forestland transfers and improve the concentration of forestlands in the next stage of forest tenure rights reform in China’s SCFA.     

非农就业对种植决策的影响*——基于土地地势的研究视角

［目的］农村劳动力非农转移影响农户农业生产方式变迁，土地质量差异造成的生产差异会随着农村劳动力非农转移造成的人力投入减少而更加显现。针对农户的市场经济行为，文章从理论及实证角度探讨农户农业劳动投入减少时农户生产决策的变化，并根据实证结果进一步探讨我国农业种植结构的变化趋势，为相关政策的制定提供决策参考。［方法］该文运用多元回归模型，从土地资源异质性的视角分析了劳动力非农就业后在不同地势耕地的农业生产决策变化。［结果］劳动力非农就业明显影响了农户种植决策，在质量较高的平地上，农户的生产决策是种植机械化生产使用高的粮食作物来减少劳动力投入下降，在质量较差的山坡地上，农户的生产决策是降低对山坡地的使用强度来解决劳动力投入不足问题，具体表现方式是降低粮食种植面积以及抛荒方式来分配家庭农业劳动投入。［结论］不同地势耕地利用强度将会出现不同变化，平原以及交通便利地区，可以通过机械来替代人力投入，交通较为不发达的山区丘陵地区，需要通过加大农业基础设施建设等来解决山区丘陵地区的抛荒问题。政策支持方面，鼓励中低产田提高产品产量与提升降本技术，保障与维护国家粮食安全。     

长江经济带农业绿色生产效率及其时空分异特征研究

［目的］从静态分析和动态分析两个方面，阐释长江经济带农业绿色生产效率和农业绿色全要素生产率的时空分异特征以及生产率增长来源，以期为提高长江经济带农业绿色发展质量提供科学决策依据。［方法］文章基于资源环境约束的角度，利用MinDS模型和Global Malmquist Luenberger指数相结合的方法，测算长江经济带农业绿色生产效率和农业绿色全要素生产率，并将农业全要素生产率变化分解为纯技术效率变化（PEC）、纯技术变化（PTC）、规模效率变化（SEEC）和规模技术变化（SETC）4个部分。［结果］（1）长江经济带农业绿色生产效率水平较高，且呈不断增长趋势，下游地区的农业绿色生产效率高于中、上游，且中、上游与下游地区的差距不断拉大； （2）长江经济带农业绿色全要素生产率增长较快，以3年为1个周期，呈现波动式上升趋势，其增长主要源于纯技术进步和规模技术提高； （3）长江经济带下游农业绿色全要素生产率增长率最高，上游次之，中游最低，其中，下游农业绿色全要素生产率增长主要源于纯技术进步，中游是纯技术效率改进、纯技术进步和规模技术提高共同作用的结果，上游则源于纯技术效率改进、纯技术进步和规模效率提高。［结论］长江经济带上、中、下游三大区域的农业绿色发展水平和发展能力存在较大差异，需制定差异化政策，以调整农业增长模式，促进农业转型升级，实现高质量发展。     

Institutions and Work Incentives in Collective Farming in Maoist China

This paper challenges the conventional wisdom that assumes widespread shirking and inefficiency in agricultural production under the collective system in Maoist China, and attributes these problems to egalitarianism in labour remuneration and difficulties in labour supervision. Drawing on interviews with 131 former production team members from 16 provinces, this paper re‐examines the issue of work incentives by placing it in a historical and social context in which formal institutions, such as the different forms of collective organization, income distribution and state extraction, as well as informal institutions, such as indigenous social networks, communal norms and collective sanction, interacted with non‐institutional factors, especially local geographical, demographic and ecological conditions, to constrain and motivate Chinese villagers participating in collective production. The complexity and fluidity of this context gave rise to a multiplicity of patterns of peasant behaviour in team farming, which accounts for the contrasting performances of rural collectives in different areas and periods.     

Are aquaculture growth policies in high-income countries due diligence or illusionary dreams? Foreseeing policy implications on seafood production in Singapore

In the beginning of 2019, the Singaporean government announced its desire to increase domestic food production and, in particular, aquaculture to reach 30% of self-sufficiency by 2030. Similar policies aiming at encouraging aquaculture growth abound in high-income countries in recent years, but have had limited success. Hence, this paper investigates the potential implications of such policies to foresee consequences beforehand and improve the policy’s chances of success. Three scenarios of aquaculture development are built for Singapore until 2040, among which a business-as-usual scenario and two explorative scenarios aiming at increasing aquaculture production, the first emphasizing existing technologies and the second giving priority to novel and innovative ones, like recirculating aquaculture systems. These scenarios are assessed using an adapted version of the supply-demand partial equilibrium model Asiafish to challenge their viability in the socioeconomic context of Singapore. Only the two explorative scenarios are found to allow the Singaporean government to reach its goal in terms of seafood self-sufficiency by 2030, one of which appears to have strong advantages. In this scenario, imports decrease by 28% by 2040, seafood self-sufficiency reaches 69% and 90% of all aquaculture originates from innovative technologies, which would make Singapore an aquaculture tech-hub. It also has higher benefits within Singapore environmental, social and economic constraints such as land and aquafeed scarcity.     

基于价值流图析的生产线连续流创建

针对M企业A生产线在制品积压、交付周期长等问题，通过现状价值流图分析其原因，提出在考虑改善效益大于投入成本的条件下，选择合适的自动化水平，以克服物料供应不及时、工艺特性等制约因素。从工艺流程、布局、工装等方面进行改善并绘制未来价值流图，创建生产线连续流。生产线连续流创建后，生产周期缩短了13天、搬运距离减少41m、车间面积节省约168m2、作业人数减少6人，为企业降本增效打下了坚实基础。     

基于供给侧结构性改革的我国农产品供需及收益现状分析

［目的］在我国实施农业供给侧结构改革的大背景下，分析我国主要农产品玉米、大豆、水稻供需及成本收益现状，以把握农业供给侧结构性改革的成效及存在问题，为推进农业供给侧结构性改革及实现农业供需平衡、保证农民受益具有重要意义。［方法］将影响农业经济增长的因素分为市场需求与市场供给两部分，而市场需求包括国内需求和国外需求，市场供给则只指国内供给。分别采集我国玉米、大豆、水稻这3种典型农产品的国内市场需求、国外市场需求和国内市场供给3部分数据，并将市场需求与市场供给数据进行对比，由此分析我国农业供给侧农产品供需现状及存在的问题，指出我国农业供给侧结构性改革发展方向。［结果］（1）我国农产品仍面临着供需不平衡、农民成本收益率低、农产品价格高导致国际市场竞争力低等问题，农业供给侧结构性改革是国家的重大战略，我国通过降低农作物播种面积来降低产能最终实现农产品供需平衡效果微乎其微； （2）我国的农产品产能是相对过剩，并非绝对过剩； （3）我国农产品市场供给一端的要素没有得到有效调节，使农产品生产成本过高，是导致农产品缺少市场竞争力的主要因素。［结论］积极拓宽农产品国外销售市场来增加农产品需求渠道，调节农产品国内市场供给要素，降低农产品生产成本，提高农产品生产质量，增加我国农产品竞争力，是我国通过农业供给侧结构性改革实现农产品供需平衡的必然之路。     

Influence of livelihoods on climate change adaptation for smallholder farmers in the Mekong Delta Vietnam

Farmers in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta face a wide range of climate-related and hydrological factors which threaten rice production. Smallholder farmers must adapt to climate change to sustain rice production as their central and most important livelihood activity. A sample was stratified across agro-ecological areas in the Delta affected by flooding, alluvial soils, acid sulphate soils, and saline water intrusion and by derived farmer typologies. A rural livelihoods approach was used in focus group discussions and in-depth interviews to identify and enumerate enabling and constraining adaptation factors. Smallholders experienced diverse natural hazards such as floods, abnormal rains, high temperatures, water scarcity, and salinity intrusion specific to the agro-ecological areas. Adaptation was constrained by labour shortages, water quality, topography, access to combine harvesters, transportation infrastructure, dryers and household savings. Adaptation was enabled by farming techniques and experience, cooperative groups, water quantity, access to information, and ability to purchase agro-chemicals through credit. Small farmers (< 1?ha) were more constrained than large farmers (> 1?ha) who had an expanded livelihood asset base. A range of policy implications are discussed, but adaptation is not just about technological fixes but requires overall improvements in a range of human, social and financial components.     

试论人工智能应用于我国传统制造业的启示

现阶段,人工智能的应用和普及已经成为社会运行发展的一大趋势。与此同时,传统制造业面临着与人工智能相结合应用的升级和转型。论文基于人工智能发展与应用的背景,对人工智能带来的机遇和挑战展开分析,指出了人工智能应用于我国传统制造行业未来发展趋势方面的启示,并在此基础上提出人工智能在传统制造行业的应用办法,提高人工智能运行效率。